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Keel Pragma
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MARKETS AND ECONOMY19 September 2026 · 3 min read

The CRE Stress Test Paradox

The cleanest aggregate capital result in six years was driven not by stronger bank portfolios but by the scenario’s interest rate assumptions. The 2026 severely adverse scenario set a floor for 10-year Treasury yields at 2.3% — nearly triple the 0.8% used in 2024.

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